More stringent fuel-efficiency rules for car and light trucks will lower gasoline consumption through 2040, but such rules for trucks won’t cut demand for diesel fuel, the U.S. Energy Information Agency reports Thursday.
For light-duty vehicles, gas consumption is expected to fall from 8.4 million barrels per day in 2013 to 6.4 million bpd in 2040, reports the EIA.
“One of the primary drivers of the decrease in motor gasoline consumption is more stringent fuel economy standards,” the EIA reports, noting that new light-duty vehicles made in 2025 will be required to average about 49 miles per gallon in 2025 — up from the estimated 33 mpg in 2012.
In contrast, diesel fuel demand is likely to rise, because the projected increase in miles traveled by heavy-duty vehicles will offset the gain from their improved fuel economy. In 2011, the Obama administration set the first fuel standards for trucks, which applied only to model years 2014 to 2018 and sought a 20% cut in their emissions by 2018.
In February, President Obama said his administration will begin crafting another round of stricter fuel economy fuels for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. He ordered the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Transportation to issue those standards by March 31, 2016.
“New refinery projects are expected to focus on shifting production from gasoline to distillate fuels to meet growing domestic and global demand for diesel,” the EIA says. The agency also expects refineries to continue exporting more finished petroleum products through 2040. The United States became a net exporter of these products in 2011.
EIA’s projections reflect current laws and policies, but it says future efficiency standards and changes in travel behavior could alter them.